How it works: each stock's daily returns are regressed on BTC (≈6 months) to get its beta and non-BTC volatility. MSTX is modelled as 2× daily MSTR, including volatility drag and its expense ratio. BTC's volatility comes from Deribit implied vol at each expiry. Your BTC view sets BTC's expected price by the chosen date (moving linearly until then), and each stock moves with it by its beta. Every contract is then priced under that distribution: Model value is its expected payoff at expiry, Exp. return compares that to the ask, and Win prob is the chance it finishes above breakeven. With No view, the stock is assumed to stay flat on average, so a positive expected return means the option is cheap relative to how the stock has actually been moving.
Limits: a model, not a forecast — betas shift, MSTR/ASST can move on company news, CBOE quotes are ~15 min delayed, and returns ignore commissions and early exit. For information only, not financial advice.